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Article
Publication date: 27 November 2020

Dervis Kirikkaleli, Korhan Gokmenoglu and Siamand Hesami

This study aims to answer the following questions which have not been investigated in the literature to the best knowledge: Is there any bubble in the German housing sector…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to answer the following questions which have not been investigated in the literature to the best knowledge: Is there any bubble in the German housing sector between 2005–2009 and 2012–2017? and Is there any linkage between economic policy uncertainty and the housing sector price index?

Design/methodology/approach

This study aims to shed some light on the German’s housing sector by investigating the housing sector bubble and the causal link between the housing sector index and economic policy uncertainty in Germany, using GSADF, Granger causality, Toda Yamamoto causality and wavelet coherence tests.

Findings

The findings reveal that there are some bubbles in the housing sector in Germany for the periods investigated, there is a positive correlation between economic policy uncertainty and housing sector price index at different frequencies and different periods and between 2008 and 2009 and between 2011 and 2013, economic policy uncertainty leads housing sector price index. The consistency of the findings from wavelet coherence is confirmed by the outcomes of Granger causality and Toda Yamamoto causality tests.

Originality/value

To the best knowledge, this is the first study that empirically investigates the relationship between the housing sector and EPU using a novel wavelet econometric method. In addition, this paper extends the research focused on the associations between the housing sector and EPU, by checking the bubbles in the market in different time horizons by using the longest available data span. Furthermore, the consistency of the findings from wavelet causality is confirmed by the outcomes of Granger causality and Toda Yamamoto causality tests. Finally, compared to the previous literature on the relationship between housing and EPU, the study uses a hedonic index for housing for the first time in the case of Germany.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2019

Korhan Gokmenoglu and Siamand Hesami

Real estate and stocks are two major asset types in an investor’s portfolio. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between these two markets to provide a…

Abstract

Purpose

Real estate and stocks are two major asset types in an investor’s portfolio. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between these two markets to provide a valuable insight into the process of portfolio optimization and security selection.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines the long-run relationship between residential real estate prices and stock market index in the case of Germany for the period of 2005-2017 by applying time series econometrics techniques. To this aim, this study uses Hedonic House Price Index as a proxy for real estate prices and DAX30 as a proxy for stock prices. Moreover, three additional variables, namely, consumer confidence, credit availability and supply of mortgage loans, are incorporated as control variables to assess the robustness of the results.

Findings

Obtained empirical results indicate a long-run relationship between stock prices and real estate prices which suggests that in long-run, there is no diversification benefit from allocating stock and real estate assets in a portfolio. This finding is especially important for long-term investors such as pension funds.

Originality/value

To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first study that empirically investigates the relationship between the real estate market and stock prices using the Hedonic Price Index for the case of Germany.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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